Record: 47-49. Pace: 79-83. Change on last season: -3

After the first five Dodgers had reached base, and they had scored three runs, with men on second and third with no-one out, it was looking like the night would bring nothing more than some unexpected attention to the unwatched DVD pile. It probably would have been better for all concerned had that actually been the case: instead, four hours later, the result was exactly the same, but only after a great deal of additional effort and tension on the part of all concerned - not least, the 1,000+ comments which were typed into the Gameday Thread.

Early on, it seemed as if our offense was going to blow past the Dodgers. After Chris Young's triple led off the third inning, our hitters had, to that point, gone 9-for-15. However, it was as if someone turned off the offensive faucet when LA starter Kuroda left the game after the second: in nine subsequent innings against the Dodger bullpen, we managed only seven hits and one run. That was the biggest difference between the two teams last night: the Dodgers pen just kept hurling very good arms at us. With the exception of Falkenborg - who faced one hitter - everyone else had an ERA of no worse than 3.32, and that's with closer Saito and his 2.18 ERA on the disabled list. The LA relievers we faced last night had a combined ERA of 2.47 - only Lyon is below three for us.

One factor was the absence of Chad Qualls: we expected to see him in the seventh inning, with the Diamondbacks clinging to a one-run lead. However, while warming up, he felt a twinge in his lower back. Qualls said, "I started getting going in the seventh inning and I thought I was in there. It was a little sore, a little tight and during the pitching change they decided to go with Rosie. I guess they're just more on the safer side." Safer for Qualls, but not for that lead, as the designated replacement, Leo Rosales, retired one batter, then allowed a tying homer and a long, ground-rule double, which hardly counts as stepping up and getting it done, by any means.

That did expose the weakness of our bullpen - its disturbing lack of depth, especially with Qualls unavailable, and Juan Cruz on the disabled list. Once you get past Lyon and Peña [who combined for 2.2 innings, and retired all eight hitters that they faced], things get painfully slim, with the likes of Rosales, Robertson and Doug Slaten, whom Melvin tried to squeeze two innings out of, for the second time in his entire career. Any guesses how that worked out? If your answer was 'game-losing homer,' then you have more accurate, if less optimistic, expectations than Bob Melvin. Kudos, however, to the Petit Unit, forced into an extended outing by the early departure of Doug Davis, and who allowed one hit and one run over three innings.

Davis was horrible. As noted above, the first five Dodgers reached, and it took a niftily-turned double-play by Mark Reynolds, tagging the runner off third, then throwing to first, to avoid us being in a much worse hole than three runs down after the first. He got through the second without problem, and even the opening two batters in the third. However, a walk and a home-run to Nomar brought LA right back into the game, and Davis's night was over one batter later. He will likely not thank me for reminding him of the following line: three innings, five hits, three walks, five runs, four earned.

Fortunately, Kuroda was even worse. After getting Drew to ground out, he also allowed five straight hitters to reach safely - in our case, on five straight singles - and a groundout by Young had given us a first-inning lead that had looked extremely unlikely, only a few minutes before. We added two more runs in the second and another in the third, but that was our lot. Oh, if we'd only been able to take advantage of one of the opportunities to add on more runs; the Diamondbacks were 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position after the second inning. Perhaps the best of these was in the sixth, when we loaded the bases with one out. However, Chad Tracy popped up to the shallow outfield on the first pitch he saw, and Mark Reynolds went down swinging.

All told, however, we can't really blame the offense for dropping this one, not when they got 15 hits [even with the maddeningly-inconsistent strikezone of home-plate umpire, Jim Reynolds, who was not giving the same pitches to both sides]. Conor Jackson had the best night, reaching base safely on five occasions, with three hits and two walks. However, he was also charged with two errors on the same play in the opening inning, first bobbling the ball in left, and then making a poor throw to third which allowed the runner to advance. [This is my fault, having pointed out his errorless streak at LF in my midterm report!] Hudson had three hits and a walk, while Young and Tracy each added a pair of knocks. It just wasn't enough, on a night where Doug Davis was basically no use, and our already-thin bullpen gave up too many long balls, with three homers in eight innings.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Tony Pena, +23.3%
Honorable mention: Jackson, +17.9%; Lyon, +14.3%
God-emperor of suck: Doug Davis, -29.1%
Dishonorable mentions: Rosales, -22.2; Slaten, -18.9%

Definitely a high volume thread: as already noted, we passed 1,000 for the first time in a while, with ten posters delivering forty or more comments. Here's the rollcall for the game: 4 Corners Fan, kishi, soco, DbacksSkins, Scrbl, utahdbacksfan, hotclaws, TwinnerA, mrssoco, DiamondbacksWIn, emilylovesthedbacks, Stile4aly, snakecharmer, AF DBacks Fanatic, unnamedDBacksfan, UofAZGrad and Muu. Thanks to them for their passion: occasionally a little too much passion, and the new SnakePit policy, effective as of last night, is that posts which include profanity will immediately be hidden by the moderators, unless a free-fire zone has been announced by myself. And, believe me, that won't happen often. I don't want to censor free expression - but if you can't think of anything better to type than "F***!", then you're not trying hard enough. [Foreign language cursing - particularly in tongues not understood by the mods - remains fine. :-)]

Worth noting that the All-Star break hasn't cooled off our bats: we have had 12 or more hits for five straight games, and are batting .315 over that span. That's the longest run for us since we went six in a row back at the end of April and into early May during the 1999 season, and only three NL teams have passed five since then [Houston had seven in June 2007, while Atlanta [July 2006] and Cincinnati [April 2000] both managed six]. Unfortunately, we still have a losing record over that span, as our pitching has allowed 29 runs in those five games. Still, little steps - though if we can maintain that streak against Billingsley this evening, I will be really impressed.

Record: 47-48. Pace: 80-82. Change on last season: -2.

So, there you have it: the Diamondbacks have a losing record over the first-half of the season. It really didn't seem likely when we started off the year winning twenty of our first twenty-eight games: at that point, it looked like we were going to run away with the division and clinch a playoff spot by the middle of August. Not quite the case, shall we say. The question of what the hell happened is something that we'll be discussing during the All-Star break. Tomorrow should see my mid-season report on the team, looking at what went well, what didn't, and who should be held accountable. For the moment, however, let's just concentrate on this single loss.

Stop me if you've heard this one before. Another quality start from our pitchers goes unrewarded. Arizona wastes its offensive opportunities, not helped by a fundamental lack of basic skills on the base-paths. And the bullpen fails to keep the team in the game, Chad Qualls getting tagged with the loss. Does any of this sound about as familiar and welcome as a re-occurring nightmare? Indeed, except for a pleasing amount of offense - fourteen hits for the Diamondbacks - this was, to a large extent, the 2008 first-half in miniature.

The lack of runs is what killed us once again. It's only the second time in franchise history we have had so many hits, and come away with so little to show for it. Back on August 1st, 2003, we had fifteen hits in Wrigley Field, and like today, only managed to plate a runner three times. Cole Hamels gave up a career-high eleven hits; we should have buried the Phillies as a result. The seventh inning was particularly painful, as a combination of poor management and bad execution snuffed out a rally, following hits by Webb and Drew to put two men on, with nobody out. The score was 2-1 to Arizona at this point, so here was a real chance to add on to that lead, and go on from there, perhaps to take the game and the series.

However, Bob Melvin's love for the bunt cost us the first out, as our best hitter, Conor Jackson, wasn't allowed to hit: his sacrifice failed to advance the runners, so we still had first and second, now with one out. Hudson then sent the ball to the outfield, where Jenkins couldn't quite corral it. Unsure whether it would be caught, Drew was held at third by Chip Hale - a questionable decision in itself. A thousand times worse, though, was Orlando Hudson steaming around first, not noticing the log-jam on the bases ahead of him, where Jackson had been forced to stop at second, since Drew was holding at third. O-Dawg was caught in a rundown, and another out was gifted to the Phillies. This is at least the third time I can recall this season, where Hudson has shown a running game which would be an embarrassment at the Little League level. At what point is someone going to deal with this?

Overall, frustrating though it was, we can't really blame the offense here. Not when Chris Burke has three hits. Yeah, that matched Burke's total from his previous eighteen games combined. You will understand why that was more of a surprising bonus than anything else. Drew, Hudson and Tracy all had two-hit days as well, with Tracy smashing a home-run off a left-hander. That was his first off a southpaw in more than two years [the last being a grand-slam against Brian Fuentes in Colorado, on July 8th, 2006]. The only factor I can really criticize is one walk for the entire team, against eleven strikeouts, and this would be why it took Hamels less than a hundred pitches to get through his seven innings of work.

Brandon Webb had a solid outing, allowing seven hits and no walks over seven frames, striking out six Phillies hitters. He kept Arizona in the game, and deserved a better fate than a no-decision. Chad Qualls came in for the eighth, and has absolutely nobody to blame for the loss but himself. There were no inherited runners, and he still contrived to allow four runs while retiring one batter - he served up a three-run homer to Burrell and a solo one to Feliz. It's interesting to note that, in a tied game, with the go-ahead run at second and no outs, Burrell was allowed to actively hit. I suspect that, had we been in that situation, Bob Melvin would have activated the flashing neon, "BUNT!" sign, regardless of who was at the plate. This may or may not be connected to the Phillies having a 52-44 record at the break, while we languish below .500.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Brandon Webb, +13.7%
God-emperor of suck: Chad Qualls, -37.6%
Dishonorable mention: Conor Jackson, -11.8%

4 Corners Fan, Zephon, srdmad, njjohn, hotclaws, soco, mrssoco, snakecharmer, DiamondbacksWIn, Scrbl, TwinnerA, kishi, Mr. Philosophical, seton hall snake pit, MamaLing, garyho, unnamedDBacksfan, emilylovesthedbacks, mikeb, Stile4aly, NewJackCity and Azreous were all to be found in the Gameday Thread this afternoon, so thanks to them for their contribution. With the Dodgers looking all but certain to polish off the Marlins [9-1 up in the eighth], it seems that our lead will be one game going into the All-Star break.

It is still a lead. Though it does make the first series back after the break, where we face the Dodgers, one of enormous importance. We have set up our rotation so that we will be sending Davis, Haren and Webb to the mound - I can only imagine that the Dodgers will be doing the same, so that looks like it will be three impressive pitching match-ups. That said, and even if the resulting runs were not as plentiful as we'd hope, I was impressed how we took it to Hamels - the only starter save Haren, with a WHIP below one coming in - and we will need to hit well in the second-half if we are going to stop this slump.

Things should still be pretty active round here though. I will be posting the mid-term report tomorrow morning [I need to wait for some stats to be updated before I can complete it], and I have a few other topics we can throw into the mix for discussion. Tuesday will have the All-Star Game and Random Thread, and I believe Zephon has been working on a minor-league mid-term, which he'll be posting at some point in the next few days as well. So, stay tuned...

Record: 46-46. Pace: 81-81. Change on last season: -3

There are those out there who may mock our beatification [look it up...] of Penelope Cruz, canonizing her as St. Penelope of the Cross. But even the nay-sayers would be hard pushed to discount the miracles that followed immediately the invocation of her name, on not one but two occasions tonight. The first time was to break up the perfect game being thrown by Bergmann in the fourth - he'd retired the first ten Diamondbacks batters in a row. Immediately, the very next hitter, Drew, singled - as did the one after him, Hudson. Still, St. Penelope was only warming up: breaking up no-hitters is what drew her to our cause to begin with.

Even more impressive was her performance in the bottom of the 10th, after Peña had blown our second save opportunity of the night, coughing up three runs, while retiring one batter. The winning run was at third with one out, and the plaintive cry, "Help us, St. Penelope, you're our only hope" rang through the Gameday Thread. And lo, our prayers were heard: Flores grounded out, and Montero survived being plowed into by Kearns at home-plate. Another ground-out followed, and the hopeless cause which is the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks lived to fight another inning - where Qualls finally managed to hold the third multi-run lead of the night.

Speaking of whom: all previous bad things said about Qualls are officially stricken from the record after his past trio of performances. In two of them, he came in with an inherited runner at third and one out, and that runner did not score [and the third was a 1-2-3 inning]. Mark Grace had an interesting observation, saying that he thinks Qualls is more effective when he takes a bit off his pitches, the increased movement making up for the lower velocity. I can see how that's the case, and Qualls has now retired the last ten batters he has faced, and pitched out of a couple of very sticky situations, not of his making. As an illustration, let's take a look at the Fangraph for this game. And remember, the louder you scream, the faster we go...

[Click to enlarge, in new window...IF YOUR HEART CAN STAND IT!!!]
Master of his domain: Chad Tracy, +44.7%
Honorable mentions: Qualls +42.7%; Haren +31.6%; Drew 26.6%;
Hudson +13.6%; Romero +11.8%
God-emperor of suck: Tony Peña, -78.6%
Dishonorable mention: Lyon -16.5%; Young -16.4%

A picture is worth a thousand words, though most of the words caused by the above were unrepeatable in polite society. I think this fangraph sets new records in a number of areas. Most AZ players at +10% or above: seven [Special K was at 10.1%, but for reasons I'm sure we'll mention shortly, he deserves no "honorable mention"]. Worst performance in a winning cause: Peña, -78.6%. And best performance in a losing cause goes to Austin Kearns of the Nationals, who ended the day at a staggering +77.5%, even as his team was defeated.

How, exactly, did this happen? How did Arizona turn an excellent first eight innings by Dan Haren into...that? Well let's start by asking Bob Melvin, who opted to send Haren out there for the ninth, though he was at 104 pitches, in pursuit of a meaningless complete-game shutout. Even after Haren walked the lead-off man, getting his pitch-count up to 110, his manager opted to leave him out there, and a single promptly followed, putting the tying run on base. Finally, at least one and perhaps two batters too late, Melvin went to Lyon for a save that had, quite unnecessarily, become a great deal more difficult than it would have been.

Exhibit B: Mark Reynolds. Lyon allowed a single to load the bases, still with no-one out, but then got Kearns to hit a grounder to third. Special K, however, backed up and let the ball play him; instead of a nice double-play, it went right past him into left-field, and two runs scored to tie the game. Worse was to follow, as two outs later, he clanked yet another ground-ball, loading the bases and forcing Lyon to get a fifth out in the inning. While fortunately, our closer was up to the task, added to another error in the game, it left Reynolds with three on the day, and a major-league leading eighteen on the season. Do have to wonder whether a Ryan Braun-like move to left-field might be best for all concerned? Oh, hang on... :-( [Stats LLC said that, had Washington not scored, we'd have become the first teams to play each other in five straight shutout games for 28 years]

Reynolds did redeem himself somewhat in the tenth, as our offense girded its loins [Chris Snyder was excused loin-girding, for obvious reasons] and posted a three-spot on four straight hits with two outs. It started in fortunate fashion, Rauch - at 6'11" the tallest pitcher ever in the majors - unable to field a half-swing from Jackson. Tracy and Reynolds followed with RBI doubles, and Montero added a third run to the cushion. That hit rejuvenated our Win Probability to 96%, after it had dropped as low as 18.1% during that troublesome ninth. Surely, Tony Peña would come in and lock down the save in the bottom of the tenth - especially as Reynolds had been removed for the defensive wizardry which is Augie Ojeda.

Er, no. Pestileñce allowed hits to four of the first five hitters he faced, and the lead evaporated entirely - that Win Probability collapsed entirely, going all the way back down to 17%. As noted above, Qualls - with a little help from St. Penelope - turned back the tide, and handed things over to the offense. Ojeda got plunked to lead off the eleventh, was bunted to second, and came home on a double by Drew. After Hudson was walked, Jackson delivered another hit, but Drew was thrown out at home - with only one out, seemed a bit questionable to send the runner from third, rather than keep the bases loaded. However, Tracy added an insurance run to make it 7-5, and Qualls pitched a remarkably stress-free 1-2-3 inning to give us what we should have had all along - a two-run margin of victory.

We might want to play extra innings more often, based on this performance, as our offense clearly loved it - they got seven hits in the tenth and eleventh, which is exactly the same number as the first nine innings combined. Drew, Jackson and Tracy all had three-hit days, while Hudson had two hits and a walk. Particularly pleased to see Tracy getting hot - they're picking the match-ups for him, but in eight July games, he is batting .407 [11-for-27] with six RBI. Chris Young went 0-for-5 and continues to struggle a bit: since June 20 he is now hitting .203 with only five walks, for an OBP of just .257. Yet Melvin continues to bat him lead-off.

Lost in this was another brilliant outing by Haren, who pitched eight innings, allowing three hits, two walks and two runs (one earned) while striking out a season-high nine Nationals. That's his eighth quality start in a row, even if Haren only has been credited with the win in three of those. His ERA over that time is 1.45, with a K:BB ratio of 52:11. If there is a hotter pitcher in the National League over the past month and a half, I'd be surprised, and it would be no shock if his next appearance is starting the All-Star Game for the National League on Tuesday. It'd certainly be well-deserved.

A "somewhat tense" Gameday Thread today, and we surged past 800 as a result - pleased to see some new (or newish!) faces, so a formal welcome to NewJackCity, AF DBacks Fanatic and MamaLing. There was also a good turnout of regulars: Zephon, srdmad, kishi, nihil67, 4 Corners Fan, Muu, Scrbl, TwinnerA, Azreous, Counsellmember, soco, Wimb, mrssoco, Geno Ardi, golfmanthee, ChandlerDad, hotclaws, SongBird, garyho, dstorm and Diamondhacks. The net result is that we did indeed take two out of three in Washington, ugly and lumpy though this last victory was. The Dodgers are still playing - tied 4-4 with Florida in the eighth as I write - but at the very least, we will be tied for first as we head off to Philadelphia for cheesesteaks and the Phanatic, quite possibly the finest mascot in all baseball. If the games are less pulse-pounding than this one, I wouldn't mind too much!

And it almost worked. Unbridled Pessimism day at the Pit nearly pulled off a stunning upset, with the Diamondbacks leading the Red Sox by two runs, with just four outs left to get. But, inevitably, the lead was coughed up by Chad 'Inherited Runners' Qualls and we snatched disaster from the jaws of triumph. If only we had maintained a united front of gloom and doom in the Gameday Thread. But nooooo: someone decided they were "all about positivity." "I'm not going to join in," said the Cheerful Charlie. "Deal with it." It only takes one to spoil the barrel of vinegar, and as a result, I refer you to my post of 5:30 pm:

You'll be sorry when the inevitable implosion comes, and the rest of us say, "Told you so…"

All together now: told you so.

Let's not be selfish, since there's plenty of blame to go around. Start with our hitters, for failing to capitalize on a host of opportunities during the early frames. After six innings, we had seven hits and four walks - enough to have buried the Red Sox totally. However, all we had to show for it was Tracy's three-run homer and an RBI single, also by Chad. Chris Young grounded into a double-play to end the fifth, and the chances dried up: from that point on, we went 1-for-14, and didn't  get another man into scoring position. Even allowing for our deep disdain for all things positive, a three-run lead just never felt like it was going to be enough, even though Davis was pitching well.

He'd allowed five hits and a walk through the front seven, with the only damage a one-out homer by Pedroia in the first inning. Beyond that, he was great at throwing the Red Sox hitters curves when they were expecting cutters, and vice-versa. From the second through the seventh innings, Boston only had one at-bat with a runner in scoring position. His final line was seven innings, seven hits, one walk, six K's and three earned runs: another very solid outing, another no-decision. It leaves the unfortunate Davis still winless in over a month, even though four of those six appearances have been quality starts.

Way to go, Melvin: leave your starter in too long, bring in the wrong reliever, and then leave him out there until the game is lost. You must get up very early. With Haren publicly saying last night, how he was done after 98 pitches, what made you think Davis was still fresh after 94? And how many times has Davis got any outs in the eighth inning for AZ? Exactly once in 41 starts. Lo, the Red Sox got two hard-hit singles, and the tying run was suddenly at the plate, with the big guns in their order coming up, in the shape of Pedroia, Drew and Ramirez. Time to go to the bullpen, for sure - even if Melvin was late to get anyone warming up there. So who does our manager pluck out of the pen, with men in scoring position? Chad Qualls, who has shown a horrible fondness for botching situations like that this season.

Here are Qualls' splits for the year, coming into today's game:
   Bases empty: .176/.263/.250
   Men on base: .242/.310/.355
   Runners in scoring position: .333/.404/.487
The last figure will now look even worse, as Boston went 3-for-5 tonight there against Qualls - a quick bit of button-pushing reveals opponents are now batting .364 against him with RISP. I know Melvin was aiming for the twin killing, but Qualls has just one double-play since April 24, covering 33 at-bats with someone on first. Give him an empty inning, and he is fine; bring him in with the bases clogged, and this is why Qualls leads the majors in losses by a reliever, with a 1-6 record. You'd think lessons might have been learned after Saturday in Minnesota, where he retired just one of six hitters he faced with men in scoring position.

That's the third defeat in a row where we had the lead, and couldn't hang on to it. Only three outs left, so we didn't have much hope of pulling this out of the fire: especially facing Papelbon, who has a 1.52 ERA post-2005, the lowest in the majors of any pitcher with 100+ innings. A one-out walk by Byrnes gave fractional cause for hope: might he steal second, and put us just a bloop away from tying the game? In a word, no. He almost got picked off once, and after that, he never looked like he was even going to try. Drew fanned, and Hudson grounded harmlessly out, to end the game.

Positives, outside of Doug Davis? Well, the Dodgers lost. Tracy looked good, driving in all four runs with two hits, and also getting a walk. Jackson also reached safely three times, on a hit and two walks, while Hudson chipped in with a couple of hits. But Young continues to free-fall going 0-for-4, and one wonders why Reynolds and Upton were both benched for the night; replacements Ojeda and Salazar were 0-for-7. Beyond that, I can offer nothing better than Dbackskins' fabulous visual aid:

[Click to enlarge, in new windowII]
Master of his domain: Chad Tracy, +34.9%
Honorable mention: Doug Davis, +13.3%
God-emperor of suck: Chad Qualls, -62.7%
Dishonorable mentions: Drew -16.4%, Snyder -11.3%

Another monstrous Gameday Thread, almost necessitating a double-overspill, and ending at 928 posts for the night. Present were 4 Corners Fan, DbacksSkins, Muu, dbacksfan01, Zephon, hotclaws, TwinnerA, soco, dahlian, kishi, luckycc, emilylovesthedbacks, Augie's Army, seton hall snake pit, Counsellmember, likeavirgin, mrssoco, Wimb, Diamondhacks, dstorm, srdmad, unnamedDBacksfan and ChandlerDad. Thanks to them for their presence, and a brave but futile pursuit of Unbridled Pessimism day: I don't think we'll be trying that again in a hurry. Still, we regroup and get ready to come back strong tomorrow, when we will be formally auditioning a new potential saint for the Diamondbacks pantheon. So that'll be nice...

Record: 32-26. Pace: 89-73. Change on last season: -2

Ooh, look at the Diamondbacks queuing up for the all-you-can-eat Blame Buffet this evening. There's Mark Reynolds, piling his plate high. Chad Qualls looks particularly hungry too. Doug 'Batting Practice' Slaten is forming an orderly line, right in front of Augie 'Mini EB' Ojeda. I see Chris Snyder, letting Prince Fielder steal in, right before his eyes. And Bob Melvin is coming back for a second helping, while we try to work out the logic behind his baffling managerial choices. Even Doug Davis is nibbling on an appetizer, since Fielder's theft of third-base was likely as much on his head as Snyder's.

Otherwise, though, up until the seventh inning, Davis was pretty much everything you could want, with just one run on five hits and a walk. Sure, the Brewers had runners in scoring position with no outs in the first and second inning, and two outs in the third, but the only damage after six frames was Fielder's manufactured run: single, wild-pitch, steal, sacrifice fly. I was more than a little surprised - and said so at the time - that he was allowed to bat for himself in the sixth, then go back to the mound for the seventh. With a fully-rested bullpen [only two innings over Saturday and Sunday], it seemed to be pushing our luck somewhat, especially as we only had a two-run lead.

And events proved these fears entirely justified. Another infield single [one of five on the night, which seems like an awful lot], Drew's off-line throw pulling Tracy off the bag, and then a walk, marked the end of Doug's night, but was only a warm-up for the atrocity exhibition to come. Chad Qualls came in, and Kendall tried to sacrifice - Qualls, with plenty of time to get the runner, threw wildly and again pulled the fielder covering first away from the base. That meant everyone was safe, with the bases now loaded with Brewers, and still no-one was out. Worse was to follow: Qualls then coaxed a ground-ball to Reynolds, who fired the ball home. Or, more accurately, fired the ball about five yards to Snyder's right, allowing two runs to score and tying the game.

Remarkably, Qualls then managed to escape the second and third, nobody out jam without further damage, on a strikeout, a walk and a double-play - let's just review the Win Probability as the inning unfolded:

Milwaukee Win Probabilty - 22.3%
B Hall Single - 29.3%
J Hardy    Walk - 39.7%
C Qualls relieved D Davis
J Kendall SacBunt+Err - 53.0%
G Kapler FC+Err - 82.3%
R Weeks Strikeout - 73.5%
M Cameron Walk - 73.5%
R Braun    Ground DP - 50.0%

"Ok, we somehow got out with the score still tied. We just need our bullpen to..." Barely had that thought crossed my mind, when Doug Slaten served up a fatty to a fatty, and Prince Fielder promptly crushed the ball to deep center. It may not have landed yet - the results of that pitching change made the NL Manager of the Year look a bit crap, didn't it? In the ninth, some luck finally broke Arizona's way: back-to-back errors by the Brewers allowed Reynolds and Upton to reach. With the tying run on second, we were back in the game; a sacrifice bunt by Snyder [and, for once, this actually increased our Win Probability, albeit by a massive one-half of one percent] brought the tying run to third with one out. Even a sacrifice fly would do.

But there then followed a pair of mystifying decisions by Melvin. Firstly, letting Burke - about the worst hitter on the roster - hit for himself. Somehow he managed to work a walk, loading the bases for a pinch-hitter. Who do you think Melvin sent up? Miguel Montero? Jeff Salazar? Even, perhaps, the injured Conor Jackson, for some Kirk Gibsonesque heroics? No: try Augie Ojeda, a man who has been in the majors since 2000, has amassed eight sacrifice flies in that time and was getting his first at-bat since May 25. Really: much as I love the littlest ballplayer, he's not who I wanted to see at the plate. I have a better chance of driving the ball to the outfield than Ojeda. He immediately fell behind 0-2, just got a piece of a couple of pitches that were miles outside the zone, then popped up weakly on the infield. Drew got screwed by the umpire for strike three, though the way we played over those final innings, we can hardly complain - we don't deserve to win a game for the rest of the season.

The bullpen picked up its tenth loss of the season, against only three wins, wasting another quality start. The Diamondbacks' rotation has now gone 29-16, the most victories in the majors - even including the AL, where starters go deeper and so have more chance of a decision. In comparison, last year, our relievers didn't pick up their tenth defeat for another entire month, until July 4. It's turning into a real Achilles heel for the team: Qualls and Slaten have combined to go 0-7, in just 43.2 innings of work. I know wins and losses are not the most reliable method of judging performance - especially for relievers - but a 3-10 record would seem to provide credible cause for concern.

The offense sputtered, coughed, and fell back into the trough from whence they came, going 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. And even that hit resulted in an out: Reynolds singled to the infield, scoring Drew from third - but Chris Young motored around too, trying to score from second and was thrown out at the plate. That run would have been very nice to have later on, shall we say. Reynolds and Snyder has a pair of hits apiece, with Snyder adding his fifth homer of the year. Burke had a hit and two walks, while Drew reached twice, on a hit and a walk - he was caught stealing on a strikeout/thrown-out double play. That's the first time he's been nailed in the majors, after 13 successful attempts.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Chris Snyder, +22.5%
Honorary mention: Mark Reynolds, +21.1% No, I'm calling that null and void
God-emperor of suck: oh, where to start? Deep breath...
Augie Ojeda, -22.4%
Stephen Drew, -23.3%
Doug Slaten, -25.5%

Tonight's fangraph looks like the overnight pulse-rate of a man whose bedroom was visited at 4am by Al Qaeda, 5am by Jenna Jameson, and finally, at 6am by the Grim Reaper. Not one for the ages, shall we say. I did still mostly enjoy the Gameday Thread, so thanks to the contributors: DbacksSkins, Azreous, kishi, dahlian, foulpole, mr.tunes [welcome!], hotclaws, soco, luckycc, DiamondbacksWIn, Wimb, RAMJB, LucaMaz3, njjohn, Zephon, 4 Corners Fan, Goose, TwinnerA, unnamedDBacksfan, mrssoco and shoewizard.

No-one seems to know how long Jackson will be out. He took batting practice today and is scheduled to run some agility drills tomorrow, which will hopefully answer some questions there. The MRI he received on Saturday showed a small tear in his quadriceps, and Melvin said yesterday that "We're going to try to shut him down for potentially three or four days and see where we're at. If he's back in the lineup a couple days after that, it's kind of what we're hoping for." Seems like it might be the middle of the Pittsburgh series before we get him back fulltime, at best. The latter story does say Jackson might be available as a pinch-hitter, and Melvin describes him as "usable, but not my first option." Which makes his absence in the ninth today all the more puzzling.

The Dodgers, to no-one's great surprise, closed the gap to 3.5 by beating the Rockies, who dropped their eighth game in a row. If Colorado keep this up, they are going to end up right alongside the 1998 fire-sale Marlins, for the biggest implosions in baseball history: Florida went from 92 wins and World Series champions, to just 54 the next year; the Rockies have now lost 16 of their last 21 games, and are on pace to go from the World Series to a 56-106 season. More importantly, we can't expect them to take the next two games from Los Angeles, and so winning tomorrow and Wednesday become doubly-important. 

Record: 30-24. Pace: 90-72. Change on last season: -1

That one hurt. In the first two games, we were never really in them, so the defeat was more inevitable than anything too disturbing or shocking. This one, however, was looking pretty good through the seventh inning, as we held on to a one-run lead, and Randy Johnson just missed out on passing Roger Clemens for second-place on the all-time strikeout leaderboard. He tied Clemens by fanning the first hitter of that inning and seemed to get to two strikes on everyone else he faced, but was obviously running out of gas, and couldn't quite get the final one he needed to overtake The 'Roid Rocket. Still, he was looking good for win #289, if we could only get the last six outs.

Then, enter Peña and Jackson, who each deserve about equal blame for the eighth inning fiasco that followed. I don't think I can quite stomach a full recap, so let's just go with the play-by-play:

T. Pena relieved R. Johnson
A. Rowand flied out to center
B. Molina walked
E. Burriss ran for B. Molina
R. Durham safe at first on first baseman C. Jackson's fielding error,
       E. Burriss to second
O. Vizquel grounded out to first, E. Burriss to third, R. Durham to second
J. Bowker hit by pitch
F. Lewis walked, E. Burriss scored, R. Durham to third, J. Bowker to second
C. Qualls relieved T. Pena

Well done, Conor and Tony! You must get up very early. The Giants scored the tying run without actually - oh, I dunno - needing to get a hit or anything like that, on two walks, an error and Jackson booting what seems like his ten-millionth simple groundball of the year. We could still have escape on Vizquel's hard grounder, but a clearly-rattled Jackson opted to go to first for the simple out, rather than trying to turn the inning-ending double-play. One plunking and a bases-loaded walk later, and exit Win #289, muttering something about beating the traffic.

Okay, so we still had a chance to win, right? Right? Hello? Is this thing on? I suspect that no-one really felt too confident of our chances, and when Randy 'Snake Eater' Winn homered to lead off the Giants' ninth, the reaction seemed to be one more of inevitability and disappointment than anything else. Perhaps it was the seed I planted before the game, pointing out our poor record - now 1-15 - when scoring three runs or less. It never really seemed that three runs would be sufficient to hold off the Giants, any more than it was sufficient to hold them off in the first two games of the series.

[Obscure factoid for the day #1: Hitting. It was actually the fourth consecutive game scoring exactly the same total of runs, so at least we're consistent - albeit consistently inadequate. That sets a new franchise record: we've had a number of three-game streaks with the same offensive output, but this was the first such four-peat. The Diamondbacks still have some way to go to match the 2003 Cleveland Indians, who scored exactly four runs in seven consecutive games between July 12 and July 20.]

Justin Upton continues to show signs of life, getting his first multi-hit game in a couple of weeks, whacking his first homer since May 8, and adding an RBI triple. That's seven bases in all, the most he's had all season, and the first time too that he's had more than one extra-base hit in the same game, so there's hope he's getting back onto track. He did strikeout twice though, and is now ahead of Mark Reynolds in that category. Orlando Hudson continued his hot hitting with two more hits; since coming back from his layoff, he's hitting .396 [21-for-53]. However, he also grounded into his team-leading seventh double-play. Jackson and Reynolds each reached safely twice, with a hit and a walk.

The best thing to come out of the game was, without question, Randy Johnson's outing: seven innings, six hits, two walks and two runs, with those nine strikeouts bringing him level with Clemens on the all-time list at 4,672. It's just a shame he didn't quite manage to reach #2 in front of the home fans, but it seems all but certain he'll do so again the Brewers next week. He showed excellent control, and managed a couple of strikeouts that left the Giants' hitters looking particularly incompetent: one even falling over onto home-plate after striking out. In his past three starts, Johnson has pitched 20 innings, allowed three earned runs and has a K:BB ratio of 24:3.

[Obscure factoid for the day #2: Pitching. The loss dropped Chad Qualls to 0-5; that's the worst start to a career for any Arizona pitcher, since Willie Blair lost his first seven decisions back at the beginning of our inaugural season in 1998. Next up for Qualls: the consecutive loss streak for an Arizona reliever is seven, by Greg Swindell in 2001-02, and then for an Arizona pitcher overall, the 0-11 record by Edgar Gonzalez between September 2003 and June 2006. EdGon also holds the record run of futility by an Arizona starter - the above was part of a streak where he had thirteen losses in 14 outings, but he swiped a couple of relief wins during it]

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Master of his domain: Randy Johnson, +21.1%
Honorable mention: Justin Upton, +16.7%
God-emperor of suck: Tony Peña, -27.4%
Dishonorable mention: Chad Qualls, -14.8%

Another very busy Gameday Thread, with 'Skins posting his second straight double-century, finishing at 206 posts for the night. soco hit three figures too, and also present were, unnamedDBacksfan, dahlian, hotclaws, mrssoco, victor frankenstein, srdmad, dstorm, foulpole, RAMJB, TwinnerA, peeklay, Wimb, UofAZGrad, acidtongue, luckycc and LucaMaz3. The final tally was over eight hundred; it seems clear that the number of comments has little or no correlation to team performance. But we need to await 'Charmer's doctoral thesis on factors affecting Gameday Thread participation for a full analysis. :-)

I'm thinking maybe it's time to update our slogan: perhaps something along the lines of, "Hey, at least the Dodgers lost again too." For they also dropped their fourth in a row; while our wretched performance sees the Diamondbacks firmly entrenched, at 10-16, in their first losing month since 2006, Los Angeles has managed to catch up exactly one-half game on Arizona since May 2nd. Don't look now, but San Francisco are seven back...though that too is only one-half game closer than they were on May 2nd. Indeed, to prove how little has changed, despite our poor performance, here are the full NL West standings then and now:

And with that, to bed. I'm trying to talk Azreous into doing the recap for tomorrow night - because, to be honest, after the past three games, my enthusiasm has been stretched painfully thin. The Nationals should present something of an easier challenge, but all hopes of a winning home-stand now lie, like dust in the wind. I just hope that, when we go to Sunday's game, we are not looking to stave off back-to-back sweeps. That may seem unduly pessimistic, but after this series, it doesn't seem utterly implausible.

Record: 21-9. Pace: 113-49. Change on last season: +5.

The final score makes this one look a lot more convincing than it was. Yes, Webb got his seventh win of the year. Sure, we out hit the Mets 15-6 and had a total of 23 baserunners. But, with three outs to get, this was only a one-run game and it looked like we would be relying on Brandon Lyon for a tense final inning. Then, the Mets' Duaner Sanchez imploded, retiring only one of the six hitters he faced and also uncorking a run-scoring wild pitch. By the time the innings finally ended, with Micah Owings striking out as a pinch-hitter, victory was no longer in any significant doubt, with Win Probability having gone from 86.5% to 99.7%.

All hail Augie Ojeda, replacing the injured Hudson, who joined an elite group: Diamondbacks with 6+ RBI during a game. There are now only ten names on that list - Steve Finley did it twice in 1999 - many not the ones you'd expect. Only two [Finley and Gonzo] appear in the franchise top ten RBI list: present instead are Micah Owings, Orlando Hudson, Damion Easley [starting, by coincidence, for the Mets today], Shea Hillenbrand, Carlos Baerga, Chad Moeller and Erubiel Durazo. Ojeda singled in two runs during the second, doubled down the right-field line to add two more in the fifth, and repeated the medicine as part of the five-run ninth. Given he'd never driven in more than three before - and that all the way back in 2001 - this was truly a day he'll remember.

He's not the only Diamondbacks to have a career game, though the other one has much less of a career - thus far, at least. With three hits and two walks, and at age 20 years and 252 days, Justin Upton became the youngest player to reach base safely five times in a game since Ken Griffey (20 years, 173 days) on May 13th, 1990. The one before that was Alan Tramell (20, 136) on July 7th 1978. Young, Drew, Jackson and Snyder all joined Upton and Ojeda with multiple hits: CY and CoJack also added walks, as we reached double-figures in runs for the first time in exactly two weeks.

This was a major relief since, despite being voted NL Pitcher of the Month for April (well, duh...), Brandon Webb did not have his best stuff, missing his spots and falling behind hitters much more often than he has cruising to a 6-0 record and an ERA below two. That said, he only really made one mistake he couldn't correct: that was a 1-1 pitch to Carlos Delgado with two outs in the sixth, which was promptly dispatched into the right-field corner for a three-run homer. All of a sudden, what had been looking a fairly comfortable 5-1 lead, suddenly became a great deal more nerve-wracking. Webb ended the day after that inning, having allowed four runs on only five hits and two walks.

The A-Bullpen were, however in full effect. Qualls extended his streak of innings without an earned run to 16.2 innings, and is now within sight of the franchise record for a reliever. That stands at 21 innings - from another surprising source, journeyman bullpen arm Willie Banks, over 16 games between June 25 and August 23 1998, after coming over from the Yankees. Tony Peña was perhaps the most impressive of the trio, as he mowed down the heart of the Mets 1-2-3, first taking Church to school [if you see what I mean...], then retiring Wright and Beltran. Lyon allowed a single to Easley, but that was it, and we evened up the series, in advance of what should be a great game tomorrow.

It wasn't all sunshine and lollipops today. Our defense was once agaib flaky, with errors being charged to Drew and Webb - the former letting a ground-ball under his glove, the latter apparently trying to throw a high chopper by Easley, before he'd actually caught it. Byrnes and Reynolds struggled again: before they came to bat in that eighth inning [Eric singled and Mark walked], they were a combined 0-for-8 with nine men left on base. Special K's average is now down to .226, and he was overtaken by both Young [.244] and Snyder [.227] today.

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Master of his domain: Augie Ojeda, +21.1%
Honorary mention: Justin Upton, +14.0%
God-emperor of suck: Mark Reynolds, -10.8%

After last night, it was definitely good to come out on the winning end of this one, and the emphatic margin will hopefully give us some momentum going into tomorrow [I'm not sure if there is such a thing or if it's one of those unproven myths like two-out runs being worse to give up]. I kinda thought we'd have more people in the thread today - for the second consecutive game, we didn't need an overflow thread. Still, thanks to those present: Turambar, Jim McLennan, 4 Corners Fan, foulpole, luckycc, Muu, hotclaws, dahlian, Snakebitten, DiamondbacksWIn, soco, mrssoco, kishi, Azreous, TwinnerA, snakecharmer and njjohn.

The victory was particularly crucial as the Giants and Padres have both won: the Dodgers and Rockies are in another slugfest at Coors [17 runs last night, 15 already this evening and we're only in the sixth], but LA look to have the edge there. And with that, we're thinking about heading off to see Iron Man tonight. We'll let you know if Mark Reynolds has a cameo role... :-)